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Japan 2000
Publication Date:198512
Book title: Future
Butterworth & Co. (Publishers) Ltd.
Japan 2000 (19850826) （未完）
(Submitted to Mexico 2010)
Introductory Remarks
The “modernization” of Japan, which began in 1868, has been a miraculous success in spite of the disastrous damage from the war between 1941 and 1945. This success was partly due to the diligent manpower of the country and partly to the fortuitous timing of Japan’s decision to pursue a program of revolutionary social change known s the “Meiji Restoration”.
At the time that decision was made, industry throughout the world was relatively unsophisticated, and the Japanese people were able to catch up with Western technology. To do so, of course, they needed much technical knowledge from Western countries, and the government did not hesitate to invite to Japan eminent scholars, especially in the fields of science and technology. It was really remarkable that the government took this decision, which was based on its belief that the most important requirement of modernization was an investment in education that would result in highly competent manpower to meet future needs. The scholars and technicians invited from abroad, mainly from Europe and America, were given extraordinary salaries; indeed, their salary scale was far greater than that of the Prime Minister. But this far-sighted investment proved to be a most rewarding one.
Fortunately, at that time, Japan had ample exports, especially in tea and silk, and by 1890, its trade with other countries began to bring profits rather than deficits. The economic situation of the country was extremely good, although a considerable amount of money went to the military until 1945. And after that, following several years of turmoil and poverty, Japan’s economic reconstruction was extraordinary. Again, Japan invested a huge amount of money in research and development, in both the public and private sectors. The manufacturing industries - such as electric and electronic products, automobiles, and other consumer goods - grew rapidly, and their products became new export items from Japan to other parts of the world. It won’t be necessary here to say that the success of Japan’s export trade has become a serious focus of world attention and figures prominently in the current trade frictions between Japan and the United States. The economic growth rate has slowed down, however, in the past few years. GNP growth is somewhere between two and three percent compared to a rate of sometimes close to ten percent in the 1970’s.
On the domestic scene, there are a few things to be pointed out here. In the first place, Japan has been essentially an “achievement-oriented” society. As mentioned before, Japan has concentrated its efforts on education, and the selection of capable people, not only in the schools but also in society in general, is based on achievement rather than ascription. In other words, anyone, regardless of his or her family background or social class, can aspire to high positions in government or private business. The ministers of the Meiji government as well as those of today, with only a very few exceptions, are people from the lower strata of society. The post-war businessmen are also capable people who come at times from the bottom of society. The implication is that Japanese society has been very mobile in the past century and that the aspiration level of young people has been and continues to be extremely high. On the negative side, this situation has led to the well known “examination hell” in which young people compete desperately in the entrance examinations to the first-rate universities.
Another characteristic of Japanese society that should be noted as prelude to a discussion of what Japan might be like in the year 2000 is that Japan is now a typical middle-class society. Japan has neither extremely rich nor extremely poor people. Because of its progressional income tax system, the maximum income tax is 85 percent and the minimum is zero. Additionally, Japan has a unique progressional inheritance tax based on the assumption that a person’s fortune is the reward for his or her personal achievement and success and is not necessarily deserved by that person’s sons or daughters. The richer a person is, the greater is the proportion of his fortune that goes to taxes on his death.
Another factor that has made Japan a middle-class society is the radical land reform that took place in 1947. Before that, the big landlords leased their farms to tenants and peasants, and thus enjoyed considerable income. But after the reform, former tenants, by purchasing a small lot at a price fixed by the government, became independent farmers. They are now part of the middle class. With the aid of government agencies, their crops are sold at stable prices, and the urban-rural gap has almost disappeared from the nation.
The third point to be emphasized is that government has had strong leadership in the past century. As seen in the case of land reform, the Japanese government takes initiative on many reforms under the name of “administrative guidance”. The educational reform of 1952 is another example. For better or worse, the government has played a very important role through parliamentary democracy in the development of the country. At the same time, the Japanese people are well aware of the concept of “the public interest” and its importance. A good example is the Japanese broadcasting system; the public broadcasting corporation (NHK) collects a subscription fee from each household every year. There is no law by which a person who does not pay the fee is punished, but more than 95 percent of the people pay it because they feel the need for non-commercial public broadcasting as a vital information resource for the country.
The several thoughts outlined above are given as the background against which the future of Japan should be viewed.
Japan 2000
Several key determinants of “Japan 2000” should be clarified here.
Population Structure
According to statistics revealed by the Ministry of Welfare in 1985, the average life expectancy of the Japanese people is over 80 for females and only slightly less for males. If other conditions are equal, it is estimated that in the year 2000 more than 25 percent of the Japanese population will be over 65. In a word, Japan is going to be a nation of old people, and the implications are serious. In the first place, there will be fewer young people than there are today to support more of older people than there are today. Social welfare costs will soar; funds must be secured now, and must also take into account anticipated inflation. The tax rate will become higher and the government budget must be cut down.
Already, in preparation for the year 2000, the Japanese government has started the “simplification” of administration - decreasing the number of government officials or combining ministers. The railroad system, which has been owned and operated by the government at a severe loss and now has accumulated heavy debts, is going to be “privatized” or “commercialized”, thus saving government expenditure. All Japanese are now obliged to join the social welfare program, paying in money each month so that they can receive welfare money when they get old.
In the past, the retirement age was set at 55, but many firms today are changing their policy so that workers can stay on until 60 or even 65 if their health permits. This may mean extra expenditure or even waste for commercial firms, but people themselves generally like to work the more extended period of time and the extension of the retirement age should lessen the government’s social welfare burden.
The changing quality of work poses another question. The days when “work” meant “labor” have gone. People now must cope with highly sophisticated machines such as computers, and older people are handicapped by this kind of technological progress, even though they are willing to work, their health is good, and their morale is high.
Also, there is a problem in the decreasing birth rate. According to recent statistics, the average size of the contemporary Japanese family is 3.5, meaning that many households have only one child. The implication for the future is that Japan is facing a shortage in the young working force in 2000. The increasing number of older people, coupled with the decreasing number of younger people, will create drastic changes in the Japanese society of tomorrow.
The aging of the population has many side effects. When the life expectancy was 60 or even 50, people seldom thought in terms of three-generation families. But today, and even more tomorrow, three-generation families of fairly long duration will be common in Japanese society. We even anticipate the emergence of four-generation families. Since 1983, the housing industry has been selling what it calls a “three-generation family house”, which can accommodate seven to nine people with privacy and communal space.
Education will also feel the effects of this aging of society. As mentioned above, older people are handicapped because they have much difficulty in “updating” themselves. In order to meet their needs, new educational institutions are emerging. One good example is the inauguration of the “University of the Air”, through which everyone can receive university instruction. The University has its own broadcasting facilities for both TV and radio, and courses are given from 6:00 a.m. to midnight everyday.
B. Resources
In spite of common assumptions drawn from the current trade controversy, Japan in actuality relies heavily on imports from abroad literally to survive. Sixty percent of the food that the Japanese people consume comes from the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Raw materials such as oil, mineral resources, timber, textiles, etc. are largely imported from abroad. In other words, Japan cannot support herself without heavy dependence on imported materials. Japan has been known in the past as a natural-resources-poor country, and it is much more so today. Agriculture, as mentioned above, is supported by government aid; but the agricultural products of Japan cannot compete with imported products in terms of price and often even in quality. A pragmatic and radical solution would be to give up agriculture and other primary sectors of the economy, but any country must try to be prepared for minimum survival within its own resources. Administrators seem to agree that forty percent of its food should be produced within Japan, and for this government subsidies are needed.
This is the area in which, as many American critics say, Japan is taking a “protectionist” stance. However, it should be noted here that Japan is the largest buyer of American farm products in the world.
Japan is extremely fragile in energy resources as well. She does not produce any oil, and her total energy resources consist of imports from OPEC countries. As a matter of fact, at this time Japan has only two months of oil reserves; if another serious oil crisis occurs, it will cause fatal damage not only to the national economy but also to the ability of the people to survive.
Though Japan is mountainous and has plenty of forests that can produce timber, forestry products also cannot compete with imports. Labor costs are very high, and mountains in Japan are quite steep. Therefore, Japan is now obliged to buy timber from North America as well as from Southeast Asia.
There are only a few examples of Japan’s natural resources situation today. And this tendency toward importation will continue toward the year 2000. Japan’s capital penetration to other parts of the world, another source of criticism, is partly a result of Japan’s fear of resource shortages in the future.
However, a futures study scholar recently made an interesting remark about resource problems. According to him, with the advancement of technology, especially in the field called “hi-tech”, the situation may change dramatically. For instance, there is a possibility of replacing certain steel products with “new ceramics”. As a matter of fact, a manufacturer has been experimenting with the production of an automobile engine made totally of new ceramics. Since the raw material, soil, is plentiful, if this experiment is successful the demand for steel would drop considerably. Or take optical fiber as a new means of communication; optical fiber is made of glass, not copper, and can also be made with raw materials available in Japan. As for energy, in spite of overwhelming controversies, Japan seems committed to atomic power plants. Indeed, as of 1985, there are about a dozen atomic power plants and 22 percent of Japan’s electricity supply are drawn from nuclear energy.
C. Information
Many people in Japan today, not only experts but also laymen, talk about the “information society”. The meaning of the term is still ambiguous, but “information“ in its broadest sense, inclusive of mass media, advertising, telephone, and so on, is contributing to the Japanese GNP at a tremendous rate. The Ministry of Telecommunication conducted a very significant survey in this respect. According to the report, only 3 percent of the “information” produced and distributed was “consumed”; in other words, most of the information was never used by anybody. But one cannot call it a waste. On the other hand, information, by nature, cannot be really “consumed” like other durable goods. You can consume food, but after you read a book, the book remains as it is. In other words, information is not perishable once it takes the form of either print or audio/visual film/tape. If information is a commodity, it is unique in the sense that it is “un-consumable” in economic terms. Information is cumulative, as can be seen in the ever-increasing stock of books in libraries. Indeed, Japan today is an information-saturated society, and the trend will continue if other conditions are equal. Japanese households, without a single exception, have TV, radio, telephone, and in the recent years, the CAPTAIN system, a videotext device introduced so that people can have easy access to database of various sorts. For example, if a housewife wants to know the price of a commodity at supermarkets, she can select this information by simply manipulating a small keyboard. Personal computers are becoming more and more popular, and Japanese technology has succeeded in inventing a word-processing program for the written Japanese language, which contains at least 3,000 Chinese characters. These new electronic devices are widely used, and manufacturers are trying to lower prices while introducing new models every month.
This information-dominant social organization can be seen from a different angle. The distribution of occupations in the Japanese population is changing rapidly. Some 60 percent of employed people are engaged in information-related jobs, including merchandising, tourism, and other service occupations. The problem of agriculture in Japan was discussed earlier; but only 10 percent of the Japanese are working on the farm, and most of them have a second job in factories or other industries. “Pure” farmers make up a mere 4 percent of the total Japanese population. The manufacturing sector, thanks to technological innovations, is enjoying great efficiency through automation and extensive use of robots. It may be worthwhile to note that 70 percent of the industrial robots now in operation in the world are in Japanese factories. And since factory automation and robotization is the result of information-manipulation machines such as computers, it is safe to say that the Japanese manufacturing sector also is “informationalized”. Such an occupation patter is quite new, not only to Japan but to the world. Japan today may be seen as the world’s most advanced country in information-related industries.
D. Models
Such observations lead us to a profound concern of the Japanese people. Since the mid-19th century, Japan has looked to Western countries for a model. “Catch up with the West” has been a familiar slogan in Japan for the past one hundred years. Especially after 1945, when Japan lost the war, the model for Japan has been, without question, the United States. It is commonly said that Japan is imitative. Probably it is so. At least, she was. But as we approach the end of the 20th century, it seems that Japan has lost her model. Japan has now achieved most of the things that Americans have achieved. For example, Japan did not have an automobile industry as such until the middle of the 1950s. Cars were produced under franchises from European automobile companies. But after gaining the know-how, Japanese industrialists immediately started their own operation. Indeed, the concept of “Quality control”, introduced by Americans after the war, found ready supporters among Japanese manufacturers, who have now achieved the highest standard of quality control in the world.
In other words, Japan has indeed lost her model; moreover, some countries, ironically including America, are now eager to learn from Japan - evidenced by the numerous scholarly books written by Americans on “Japanese management”. In Southeast Asia, especially in Singapore and Malaysia, many governments have decided on a “look East” policy, in which their models will be sought in Japan rather than in the Western countries. According to a survey conducted recently, it was revealed that there were some half-million people around the world who are now receiving formal instruction in the Japanese language, and if self-taught learners are included it is estimated that some two million people are studying the language. The zeal for this language instruction is especially strong among Chinese, Malaysians, and Australians, and in their countries Japanese-language training is now part of the regular curriculum. The implication is that at least the next generation of business people will be prepared to communicate with Japanese people in Japanese.
The widely believed myth that the Japanese language is extremely difficult to learn has proved untrue, although the National Research Institute of Japanese Language continues to conduct research on the development of simplified Japanese.
An interesting footnote on Japanese language studies abroad is found in France where in 1984 students held a demonstration demanding more Japanese language teachers. Prime Minister Nakasone responded to those demands when he visited Paris early in 1985 by promising to send more instructors.
Being without a model is a new experience for the Japanese. In the early historical period, Japan’s model was China. Japan remained under strong Chinese cultural influence until she decided to “open the door” in the 19th century. After that, the model shifted from China to the West. Throughout history, then, there were always models to follow. But now, in contrast, Japan itself is regarded as a model, and this makes many Japanese somewhat uneasy. Of course, Japan has many shortcomings and handicaps, and most Japanese do not agree with statements such as “Japan is No.1” or “Japan: the leader of the 21st century”. At the same time, however, they are becoming aware of the fact that Japan is surpassing other advanced countries, especially in the field of technology, and they have mixed feelings of pride and anxiety. Hence Japan faces a great challenge in 2000 in the need to adapt appropriately to her new and unaccustomed role as a model.
E. Being Followed
Japan’s status as a “model” derives at least in part from the fact that it was a pioneer in successfully developing various new industries. This success has led other Asian countries to follow Japan’s lead, and many of them now exceed Japan in the very industries begun in Japan.
Historically speaking, Japan’s first economic boom came in the field of textile processing in the 1950s. But there are practically no textile mills in operation in Japan today; they are now found in Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and other places. From the 1960 to the early 70s, Japan prospered from steel and shipbuilding operations; but these too are now gone. Japan’s formerly high reputation for shipbuilding is now enjoyed by Korean counterparts.
Automobile production in Japan is in good condition, and for the coming few years at least car manufacturers will continue to bring dollars into Japan. But in this sector too, Japan cannot be too optimistic, because other countries are also pursuing automobile production. Korea is making a good start in exporting a new car called the “Pony” to Canada, and sold some 60,000 in 1984. Malaysia recently started an automobile assembly line, and a Malaysian car called “Saga” is planned to be on the market in the fall of 1985, with the expectation that 30,000 cars will be sold in 1986.
There is some relief for Japan in that both “Pony” and “Saga” are made under joint-venture agreements with Japanese manufacturers. At present, both Korean and Malaysian firms are importing engine and other parts from Japan, to Japan’s profit, but by the year 2000 it is speculated that these countries will produce their own, without paying license fees to their Japanese partners. So it is probable that this relief will be temporary.
Electronics is now threatened. For instance, Singapore decided to establish itself as a “brain nation”, concentrating its efforts on the “hi-tech” area. Indeed, the government of Singapore is ready to welcome all people with highly scientific and academic backgrounds as citizens, regardless of nationality or sex. Many commercial firms, banks, and international wire services are moving their headquarters to Singapore from their previous sites in Hong Kong or Bangkok. As a matter of fact, the heaviest concentration of Japanese firms is also found in Singapore, where 2,000 Japanese children are accommodated in an independent Japanese school subsidized by the Ministry of Education of the Japanese government.
In other words, the NICs (Newly Industrialized Countries) of southeast Asia are trying very hard to catch up with Japan. Some economists forecast that Japan’s competitors in 2000 will be NICs rather than the United States and Europe. As mentioned repeatedly, Japan has been used to “following”, not “being followed”. Therefore, she cannot feel comfortable with what is going on in her neighboring countries. It is much too optimistic to see Japan as a more affluent and productive nation in the year 2000.
F. Education
Japan has been known for its high literacy and eagerness for education, especially in higher education. As of 1985, 99 percent of junior high school graduates go on to senior high, with a very low drop-out rate (0.5 percent), and 36 percent of those who graduate from senior high school go on to colleges and universities. This trend will continue, and there is a discussion now going on about making senior high school a part of compulsory education. (At present, six years of elementary and three years of junior high are compulsory). Looking into the problems of education, however, there are a few points to be considered. First of all, it is worthwhile to note that the Japanese government, since the middle of the 19th century, has invested huge amounts of money in the field of science and technology. A British observer who came to Japan in the 1880s remarked that Japan had many more students in engineering than did the British at that time, and the educational policy of heavy emphasis on science and technology has not changed. Today, Japan produces some 30,000 PhDs in this area every year, and most of them take jobs in the research and development sections of big companies. Because of a constitutional restriction, Japan does not and cannot have any military-related industry; therefore, these highly trained engineers are hired by firms that specialize in computer, automobile, electronics, biotechnology and other “high-tech” areas. It is a common joke among young scientists that they are making rice cookers while they are qualified to design missiles. If there is any secret to the economic success of Japan in the past forty years, it is simply the fact that Japan could afford to place thousands of competent scientists and engineers in the private sector - in contrast to other countries, where considerable portions of both the national budget and manpower pool go into the military or defense-related industries. A survey conducted a few years ago showed that in the countries with a heavy military budget, more than sixty percent of the available micro-electronic “chips” (integrated circuits) were used for military purposes. While one hundred percent of the chips made in Japan were used in “peace industries” to meet the needs of civilian consumption. Japanese automobiles are a good example. They are equipped with hundreds of chips, including sensors that measure the temperature of the radiator, indicate the oil level, or adjust the choke level in accordance with the outside temperature, etc. The scientists’ joke is not really a joke when a sophisticated rice cooker these days contains a computerized system.
As long as this kind of scientific and technological advancement continues, Japanese technology will demonstrate great success and advancement, both in the public and private sectors, and this will continue to contribute to the rest of the world.
The second point is that, as touched on at the outset, more mature adults are willing to take higher education to update their knowledge and skills. Among the students of the University of the Air, 17 percent already hold a BA degree. The oldest “student” is a professor emeritus, now 90, who did extensive studies in education and taught at a well-known university for more than forty years. He decided to take another degree - in nutrition, this time. Life-long learning or continuing education in Japan is a growing field, and people have very high aspirations.
One of very few alternatives - perhaps the only one - for Japan in her attempts to survive in the year 2000 will be to transform the nation to a “brain nation”, just as Singapore decided. Perhaps this should be seen as “following the followers”, since Japan may well have inspired Singapore’s decision.
G. The Changing Generation
In a recent special issue of Newsweek magazine, devoted to “Japan after 40 years”, a reporter interviewed a 15-year-old girl in Tokyo. To the question, “What do you know about Saipan”, the girl answered, “I heard it’s a beautiful island for swimming”. “What about Okinawa?” “White sand beaches. I would like to go there sometime”. The reporter continued, “What do you know about Hawaii?” The girl responded, “Surfing, of course. It must be fun”.
The implication of these questions and answers is that a new generation which does not know anything about World War II is now coming up in Japanese society. For those Japanese who were brought up during the war, both Saipan and Okinawa have immediate mental associations with bloody battlefields, Kamikaze attacks, and mass suicides of civilians. To them, Hawaii is the location of Pearl Harbor, the beginning of the war. The older generations, especially those over 50, share these wartime memories and experiences, and they are uncomfortable when they hear the names of these islands in the Pacific. But to the emerging new generation, not only 15-year-olds but also even 25-year-olds, these islands are simply resort paradises.
There have been many discussions of the “generation gap” in Japan, and observers have been generally correct in seeing the discrepancies between the “war generation” and the “post-war generation” - in their values, their behaviors, and their lifestyles. But the biggest gap is in the experience - or inexperience - of the war itself. In the early 1980s, a popular song titled “Children Who Don’t Know the War” was a big success, and it is symbolic that the song was accepted by the younger generation.
Indeed, Japan is one of the very few countries that have not been involved in a war of any kind in the past 40 years. The United States has had bitter experiences in Korea and Vietnam. European countries have fought with United Nations forces. Many countries in Africa and South America have experienced domestic wars. The countries of the near and Middle East have been fighting each other almost continuously for the past 20 years. But not Japan. The people of Japan must be thankful for the fact that their nation has been able to keep peace both on the domestic and the international scene. And Japan now has plenty of “children who do not know the war”. By the year 2000, the people who “know the war” will be less than 5 percent of the total Japanese population, and in 2050, there will be nobody left who remembers the war.
It should be noted here also that those “children who do not know the war” are, at the same time, “the children of affluence”. They know nothing of hunger or starvation. Starvation is something that takes place in remote countries in Africa or south Asia and they know that there is something called starvation only through television newscasts. The older generation has a habit of saving; older people save money, food, paper, and hundreds of other commodities “just in case”. An eminent author in Japan today still cannot feel easy unless his kitchen is stocked with enough canned food to feed his family for three months. He says that his experience of hunger in his teens was a deep trauma, and that is the reason why he cannot be relaxed without a huge stock of food on hand. And the older generation has strong sympathy for his feeling.
The young generation, who were born in the midst of affluence, cannot understand such a way of thinking and behavior. From the moment of their birth, there was plenty of milk; chocolate and Coca Cola were always there; home refrigerators always held a proper amount of food and drink; clothing was plentiful; and by the age of one or two, they were accustomed to watching television (in color). There are hundreds and thousands of restaurants, and supermarket shelves are full. Though the income of a young couple may be modest, they can afford to rent a small apartment, to purchase a car, and, of course, to buy food. Ironically, they are worried about the effects of high-calory food and rich eating habits. If they are short of money, they go to the bank for a loan. Why, they ask, are old people so frugal, if not mean? They (the old generation) even save the wrapping paper from the department store, or the brown bag from the supermarket, always saying “just in case”. What do they mean by “case”?
Older people, on the other hand, criticize young people for their careless and wasteful spending. But the voice of younger people is getting stronger and stronger as fewer and fewer of the “war generation” survive.
The emergence of the new generation, however, is the hope of Japan, in the sense that they are immune to the past. For instance, older businessmen in their sixties still find it somewhat awkward to negotiate with their counterparts in Southeast Asia, because both parties share bitter war experiences. On the contrary, a businessman in his thirties does not have any psychological constraints when he talks with his partner in Singapore of the same generation. They know, of course, that their parents’ generation fought a war in the past; but the war belongs to history for them.
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